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Indonesia's coal rush

Sooty success
Dec 10th 2009 | JAKARTA
From The Economist print edition


Rising demand from China and India is stoking Indonesia’s exports of coal

Reuters



FOR power stations on the coast of China, it is often cheaper to import coal by sea from Indonesia than from mines in the interior. The same goes for many Indian consumers. Japan and South Korea, both big importers, are also close—putting Indonesia at the heart of an Asian coal boom.

The majority of electricity in China, India and several other Asian countries comes from burning coal. Demand for the stuff has grown rapidly, along with the region’s economies. It is likely to continue to do so, despite environmental concerns, because coal is abundant and cheap. Last month the International Energy Agency predicted global demand for coal would increase by 1.9% a year until 2015, outpacing all other fossil fuels except natural gas.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of coal for power plants (Australia ships more of the sort used in steel production). Local mining firms are scrambling to expand; foreign investors are keen to help them. Last year, when coal prices were at their height, several local firms listed on Jakarta’s stockmarket. This year several have issued bonds. In September China Investment Corporation, China’s main sovereign-wealth fund, lent $1.9 billion to Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal-mining firm. Recapital, a local investment bank, is seeking to buy Berau Coal, the fifth-biggest local miner. Alex Wood, who runs AWR Lloyd, an energy consultancy, expects more deals as coal-hungry Chinese and Indian firms try to secure supplies.

Indonesia’s production this year is forecast to be around 230m tonnes. Roughly 190m tonnes of that are exported. But Indonesia has coal-fired power stations under construction that will absorb an extra 20m tonnes or so of coal by 2011, points out Adam Worthington, a commodities analyst at Macquarie Securities. The government says it might cap exports at 150m tonnes in future.

Bumi hopes to double its output by 2012 to 100m tonnes. Other local firms also have big expansion plans. But building a new coal mine and the accompanying infrastructure can take years, says Virach Makaranithiroj, director of investor relations for Banpu, a Thai energy company. The precipitous drop in coal prices last year as the world economy swooned has delayed some projects. A controversial new mining law giving the government sweeping powers has also caused jitters.

These obstacles make existing mines all the more valuable. Banpu, which already mines coal in Indonesia and China, is on the lookout for acquisitions. So are lots of other investors, from private-equity funds to oil companies, such as Thailand’s PTT. Chinese firms are among the most eager. This week the Chinese authorities cleared Yanzhou Coal’s $3.3 billion bid for Felix Resources, an Australian coal-mining firm.

Coal is one commodity that China has in spades. It is the world’s biggest producer and was, until recently, a net exporter. But Indonesia’s coal is of better quality. The Chinese government, meanwhile, is shutting down smaller mines. UBS predicts the proportion of global exports going to China will double to 10% by 2012. India’s share is projected to rise from 5% to 8%.

What might slow the black tide? Andreas Bokkenheuser, an analyst at UBS, says little will change until consumers of coal are forced to pay more to pollute, via a carbon tax, for example. He is from Copenhagen, where negotiators are currently struggling to agree on any such system.